In 2010 emerging markets accounted for 47.6% of global output, a share that is estimated to rise to 52.8% in 2015 and then forecast to reach 56% by 2020, with much of this growth driven by emerging markets in the Middle East. Timetric forecasts the top five fastest growing markets in 2016-2020:
Qatar’s construction industry is predicted to be the fastest growing in the world in 2016-2020, maintaining the position it held in the preceding five-year period. Double-digit growth in recent years has been driven by massive public investment in infrastructure projects, in part aimed at diversifying the economy from one that is overly dependent on the oil sector. Over the coming five years, growth will continue to be driven by the National Vision 2030 and the hosting of the 2022 Fifa World Cup.
2. Saudi Arabia
The construction industry in Saudi Arabia will remain among the fastest growing in the world, supported by investment in buildings and infrastructure to diversify the economy. The drop in oil prices could impact on the viability of new energy projects. However, the country’s fiscal position is robust and thus public investment plans are not expected to be greatly affected.
3. United Arab Emirates
The construction industry in the UAE started to recover in 2013, having contracted over the previous three years and the outlook is one of continued growth. Large-scale infrastructure projects, including the expansion of the Dubai metro and the planned Abu Dhabi metro and light-rail network, will help to drive industry growth, as will the hosting of EXPO 2020 in Dubai. The UAE will also continue to attract investment in the commercial buildings sector given its rapid emergence as a major hub for regional and global business and tourism.
The construction industry in Colombia has been expanding at a rapid rate in recent years, by an average of 9.5% a year in real terms in 2011-2015. The property market is also booming, in part reflecting increased confidence in the economy. With the government intending to spend heavily on infrastructure developments, while encouraging private investment under PPPs, construction growth will remain high, making it the fastest growing industry outside of the Middle East.
Vietnam’s construction industry has returned to a relatively healthy condition following the decline in 2011 and the collapse in the property market. However, the dominance in the economy of the state sector over the more dynamic private sector will prevent a more rapid recovery. Nevertheless, in 2016-2020 the industry will expand by an annual average of 6.4% in real terms, as the economy regains growth momentum and foreign investment confidence returns.